(Bloomberg) — Indonesia’s Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is poised to win enough votes in Wednesday’s presidential election and lead Southeast Asia’s largest economy after two failed bids, according to unofficial quick counts from multiple independent pollsters.
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The 72-year-old ex-general and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka secured nearly 60% support in quick counts done by private pollsters Litbang Kompas, Indikator Politik Indonesia, Lembaga Survei Indonesia and CSIS Indonesia-Cyrus Network. Gibran is the elder of two sons of the incumbent Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi.
That’s ahead of two other presidential contenders — former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. Under Indonesia election rules, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the total votes and at least 20% of votes in more than half of its provinces.
Prabowo has pitched himself as the candidate most likely to advance Jokowi’s business-friendly economic platform as they seek to transform Indonesia into a high-income economy by 2045. Those priorities include down-streaming Indonesia’s vast natural resources, building more infrastructure and moving the nation’s capital to Borneo.
The former son-in-law of Indonesia’s late dictator Suharto was banned from entering the US for two decades over alleged human rights abuses, something that was lifted after Jokowi named him defense minister in 2019 after beating him in that year’s election. The president hasn’t publicly declared for Prabowo even though Gibran ran as his vice president.
The victory can, in part, be attributed to an extensive image makeover on social media that has seen the temperamental military man with history of fiery nationalist speeches depicted as an affable grandfatherly figure. Among his promises is a pledge to give free lunches to some 83 million students, something that would cost 300 trillion rupiah ($19 billion) a year — nearly the same size as the nation’s 2023 budget deficit.
The world’s biggest single-day polls took place over a six-hour period, also electing lawmakers to local and national legislatures. The new leadership to take over from Jokowi in October will help shape the policies that will chart investment and growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
“The initial counts thus far shall be welcomed by the market,” said Frances Cheung, a strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd. in Singapore.
Indonesia’s local financial markets are shut on election day. The quick counts are based on a sample of actual votes from more than 800,000 polling stations across the country. Private pollsters have counted more than 50% of the votes, so far. Official results will take several weeks.
“The quick counts showing Prabowo with a comfortable lead should be positive for market sentiment in the near term, given the associated reduction in political uncertainty and policy direction,” said Krystal Tan, economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
Indonesia’s next president inherits a $1-trillion economy that has fast risen in the global resource supply chain, thanks to Jokowi’s focus on overseas sale of refined rather than raw commodities. That move has boosted exports, narrowed the fiscal deficit and steadied the currency, making Indonesia an emerging-market favorite.
The new president will lead a country that must create jobs for a large youth population while managing supply chain disruptions and the green transition that curbs reliance on locally-abundant coal. He must also navigate regional security concerns amid the heightening rivalry between the US and China.
While Prabowo promised to adopt Jokowi’s policies, if he wins, it will be his presidency and not a third term for the incumbent, said Douglas Ramage, managing director at BowerGroupAsia Indonesia.
“We must keep in mind that there’s no precedent of a president affording their predecessor much influence,” Ramage said.
–With assistance from Grace Sihombing, Eko Listiyorini, Soraya Permatasari, Matthew Burgess, Philip J. Heijmans, Norman Harsono, Cecilia Yap and Eddie Spence.
(Updates with analysts comments in seventh and last paragraphs.)
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